Faculté des arts et des sciences – Département de science politique - Travaux et publications

URI permanent de cette collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/1866/12201

Cette collection accueille les publications savantes et d’autres types de travaux d’auteur.e.s associé.e.s à cette unité. Voir aussi la collection Thèses et mémoires de l'unité.

Parcourir

Voici les éléments 1 - 20 sur 133

Accès libre
Policy change and information search : a test of the politics of information using regulatory data
Beaulieu-Guay, Louis-Robert; Costa, María Alejandra; Montpetit, Éric; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Springer, 2023-03-18)
Some policy scholars insist that any policy change is difficult to achieve, while others argue that large change occurs more frequently than we imagine. The work of Baumgartner and Jones reconciles these arguments, suggesting that the extent to which large public policy changes can take place depends on the ability of decision makers to conduct wide-ranging and varied information searches. The more open policy makers are to a diversity of information, the more likely it is that profound change will occur. Given human limitations in cognitive capacity, policy makers cannot simultaneously undertake multiple broad information searches. At any given time, however, such searches occur on a small number of policy topics, and produce significant changes on those topics, while the status quo prevails on the others. As important as this hypothesis is for policy studies, it has not been the object of significant empirical testing, especially outside the US Congress. This article fills this gap through a comprehensive analysis of Canadian federal government regulatory change from 1998 to 2019. We find that Baumgartner and Jones theory is largely corroborated in the Canadian context.
Accès libre
Annexe méthodologique pour : Alain Noël, « Les petites nations et la redistribution », Recherches sociographiques, 64, 2, 2023, pp. 415-42
Noël, Alain; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (2024-02-26)
Accès libre
The many faces of knowledge : Do science and traditional ecological knowledge coexist in federal assessments?
Beaulieu-Guay, Louis-Robert; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Wiley, 2022-08-14)
Traditional Ecological Knowledge is officially recognizedas a legitimate source of information when legislating onwildlife management at the federal level. This studyassesses the extent to which this kind of information ismobilized by administrators when writing regulations.Analyzing the use of traditional knowledge in classifyingendangered species shows that although Indigenousindividuals and organizations are systematically con-sulted, traditional knowledge is rarely a factor in impactassessments. However, for scientific examinations con-ducted before these regulatory impact assessments,traditional ecological knowledge does appear to beconsidered a reliable source of information, even if it isnot widely used.
Accès libre
Does business influence government regulations? Newevidence from Canadian impact assessments
Beaulieu-Guay, Louis-Robert; Tremblay-Faulkner, Marc; Montpetit, Éric; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Wiley, 2020-04-27)
Regulatory impact assessments frequently embed stakeholder consultations in their design. Canada was one of the early adopters of such an approach and therefore has systematic documentation on the actors taking part in these consultations. This article asks whether these consultations have an influence on regulatory change and whether business disproportionally benefits from them. After converting the documentation into data, we find that these consultations do in fact matter: the more diversified the stakeholders taking part, the more stringent the changed regulations. But we also found that for a subset of regulatory changes, those likely to carry high economic stakes, business takes advantage of the consultation, often obtaining some reduction in regulatory stringency. These reductions, however, are conditioned on the relative absence of opposing views expressed during the consultations.
Accès libre
Un monde désenchanté : essai sur la crise sociale et politique
Boismenu, Gérard; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Presses de l'Université de Montréal, 2022)
Titre cruel s’il en est, le monde désenchanté de Gérard Boismenu explique la désillusion, le découragement, la déception, le désabusement et la désespérance d’une partie importante de la population, celle qui vit la détérioration de ses conditions d’existence et qui voit son horizon bouché. Cette atteinte au lien social, dont découle une perte d’adhésion à l’ordre et la transformation de la vie politique, de sa dynamique et de ses acteurs, entraîne l’émergence des radicalismes. Dans un monde où gagnants et perdants se côtoient sans jamais se lier, où les institutions ploient sous les contraintes d’une mondialisation débridée, où les extrémismes montent en puissance, quelle force politique peut s’affirmer? La réflexion à la fois sensible et rigoureuse de l’auteur sur les contradictions et les ruptures criantes de notre monde moderne, ses ambivalences, ses prétentions et sa marge de manœuvre ne doit pas faire oublier au lecteur que le désenchantement permet parfois l’émergence de la lucidité et de la résistance.
Accès libre
State breakdown and Army-Splinter Rebellions
McLauchlin, Théodore; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (SAGE, 2022-07-03)
In Afghanistan, Libya, Liberia and beyond, armed rebellions have begun when armies fell apart. When does this occur? This paper conducts a large-N analysis of these army-splinter rebellions, distinct from both non-military rebellions from below and from coups, using new data. It finds that they follow a logic of state breakdown focusing on regime characteristics (personalist regimes and the loss of superpower support at the end of the Cold War) rather than drivers of mass mobilization from below. In contrast, these regime-level factors matter much less for the nonmilitary rebellions from below that dominate theorizing about civil war origins. This paper also shows that one option for military rebels lies in not attempting a coup but instead heading straight into a rebellion. This paper thus distinguishes highly different paths to armed conflict, validates the state breakdown approach to why armies fall apart, and extends the well-known tradeoff between coups and civil wars.
Accès libre
Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems
Mongrain, Philippe; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Elsevier, 2021-03-19)
The expectations of voters regarding election outcomes appear to be mostly influenced by their own political preferences. This raises two important questions. First, once partisan predispositions have been accounted for, how much do other variables like interest in the campaign, election news attentiveness, political knowledge, education or competitiveness help to explain one’s ability at predicting election outcomes? Second, does one’s level of sophistication moderate the link between political preferences and forecasting abilities? To answer these questions, I mobilize data from seven elections taken at the district and (sub)national levels. I also introduce a new measure of forecasting ability—the cumulative Brier score index. In most cases, variables other than preferences and knowledge have little or no influence on the accuracy of voters’ expectations both at the (sub)national and district levels. Political knowledge is positively associated with citizens’ forecasting abilities; however, it does not appear to moderate the preference–expectation link. This result contradicts findings from existing work and holds important implications for the study of citizen forecasting.
Accès libre
Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data : adding polls to a structural forecasting model
Mongrain, Philippe; Nadeau, Richard; Jérôme, Bruno; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Elsevier, 2020-07-04)
Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intention polls to these models—i.e., synthesizing ‘fundamental’ variables and polling information—can lead to important accuracy gains. In this paper, we look at the efficiency of different model specifications in predicting the Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 2015. We find that vote intention polls only allow modest accuracy gains late in the campaign. With this backdrop in mind, we then use different model specifications to make ex ante forecasts of the 2019 federal election. Our findings have a number of important implications for the forecasting discipline in Canada as they address the benefits of combining polls and ‘fundamental’ variables to predict election results; the efficiency of varying lag structures; and the issue of translating votes into seats.
Accès libre
10 Downing Street: who’s next? Seemingly unrelated regressions to forecast UK election results
Mongrain, Philippe; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Taylor and Francis, 2019-02-01)
In recent years, the British polling industry has encountered difficulties in its attempts to measure voting intentions in important popular consultations, notably the referendum on Scottish independence, the 2015 general election and the EU membership referendum. In such a context, it is extremely valuable to explore how different forecasting models that use political and economic variables can be used to predict the outcome of elections. In this paper, we propose such a model by introducing a political economy equation to estimate the vote share obtained by the incumbent party in UK general elections three months before the vote as well as a set of seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) to forecast the results of the Official Opposition, the Liberal Democrats and the remaining parties.
Accès libre
A technocratic view of election forecasting : weighting citizens’ forecasts according to competence
Mongrain, Philippe; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Oxford University Press, 2021-05-10)
The present research note contributes to the (citizen) forecasting literature by leveraging vote expectation data from close to 3,200 district-level races in four countries (i.e., Canada, France, Germany, and Great Britain) in order to assess the relative merits of two competing views of the ‘wisdom of crowds’ hypothesis: the democratic view and the technocratic view. More precisely, the paper addresses the following question: Can we improve citizens’ forecasts of election outcomes by weighting voters’ expectations according to their level of expertise?
Accès libre
Predicting in an (increasingly) unpredictable system? : forty years of election forecasting in France
Mongrain, Philippe; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Palgrave Macmillan, 2022-02-22)
In the last 40 years or so, scholars have proposed a vast array of models and approaches to predict election outcomes in a variety of democracies. Election forecasting has garnered increasing attention and has been the subject of multiple symposia and special issues in political science journals. This article reviews the forecasting efforts that have been deployed in the case of France since pioneering work in the late 1970s and early 1980s and discusses the peculiarities of the French political system and their consequences as well as the challenges they create for election forecasting.
Accès libre
A methodological scoping review of the integration of fMRI to guide dMRI tractography. What has been done and what can be improved; a 20-year perspective
Jarret, Julien; Boré, Arnaud; Bedetti, Christophe; Descoteaux, Maxime; Brambati, Simona Maria; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de psychologie (Elsevier, 2021-11-13)
Combining MRI modalities is a growing trend in neurosciences. It provides opportunities to investigate the brain architecture supporting cognitive functions. Integrating fMRI activation to guide dMRI tractography offers potential advantages over standard tractography methods. A quick glimpse of the literature on this topic reveals that this technique is challenging, and no consensus or “best practices” currently exist, at least not within a single document. We present the first attempt to systematically analyze and summarize the literature of 80 studies that integrated task-based fMRI results to guide tractography, over the last two decades. We report 19 findings that cover challenges related to sample size, microstructure modelling, seeding methods, multimodal space registration, false negatives/positives, specificity/validity, gray/white matter interface and more. These findings will help the scientific community (1) understand the strengths and limitations of the approaches, (2) design studies using this integrative framework, and (3) motivate researchers to fill the gaps identified. We provide references toward best practices, in order to improve the overall result's replicability, sensitivity, specificity, and validity.
Accès libre
The abiding voter : the lengthy horizon of retrospective evaluations
Stiers, Dieter; Dassonneville, Ruth; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Wiley, 2019-11-29)
Although the theory of retrospective voting receives wide support in the literature on voting behavior, less agreement exists on voters’ time horizon when assessing the government’s performance – i.e., whether voters are myopic. Previous studies on voter myopia tend to focus on aggregate-level measures of the economy, or use an experimental approach. Using panel data, this paper offers the first investigation into voter myopia that uses individual-level evaluations of government performance in a representative survey at several points during the electoral cycle. Our study focuses on The Netherlands, but we also provide tests of the generalizability and robustness of our findings, and a replication in the U.S. context. The results indicate that voter satisfaction early in the government’s term adds to explaining incumbent voting. Thus, rather than the myopic voter, we find evidence of the abiding voter – steady at her or his post, evaluating government performance over a long length of time.
Accès libre
Explaining the Trump vote : the effect of racist resentment and anti-immigrant sentiments
Hooghe, Marc; Dassonneville, Ruth; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Cambridge University Press, 2018-04-12)
The campaign leading to the 2016 US presidential election included a number of unconventional forms of campaign rhetoric. In earlier analyses, it was claimed that the Trump victory could be seen as a form of protest voting. This article analyzes the determinants of voters’ choices to investigate the validity of this claim. Based on a sample of the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, our analyses suggest that a Trump vote cannot be explained by a lack of trust in politics or low levels of satisfaction with democracy, as would be assumed given the extant literature on protest voting. However, indicators of racist resentment and anti-immigrant sentiments proved to be important determinants of a Trump vote—even when controlling for more traditional vote-choice determinants. Despite ongoing discussion about the empirical validity of racist resentment and anti-immigrant sentiments, both concepts proved to be roughly equally powerful in explaining a Trump vote.
Accès libre
Compulsory voting, inequality, and quality of the vote : the impact of compulsory voting on accountability and proximity voting
Dassonneville, Ruth; Hooghe, Marc; Miller, Peter; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Routledge, 2017-01-18)
Democratic elections imply that the electorate holds incumbents accountable for past performance, and that voters select the party that is closest to their own political preferences. Previous research shows that both elements require political sophistication. A number of countries throughout the world have a system of compulsory voting, and this legal obligation boosts levels of voter turnout. Under such rules, citizens with low levels of sophistication in particular are thought to turn out to vote in higher numbers. Is it the case that the quality of the vote is reduced when these less sophisticated voters are compelled to vote? This article investigates this claim by examining the effect of compulsory voting on accountability and proximity voting. The results show that compulsory voting reduces stratification based on knowledge and level of education, and proximity voting, but it does not have an effect on economic accountability. The article concludes with some suggestions on how systems of compulsory voting might mitigate the strength of political sophistication in determining the quality of the vote decision process.
Accès libre
Do women vote less correctly? The effect of gender on ideological proximity voting and correct voting
Dassonneville, Ruth; Nugent, Mary K.; Hooghe, Marc; Lau, Richard; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (University of Chicago Press, 2020-05-11)
Studies on political knowledge routinely find that women have lower levels of political knowledge than men. This gender gap in political knowledge is usually interpreted as troublesome for democracy, because a lack of political knowledge could imply that women’s participation in politics is less effective and that their interests will be represented less well than those of men. In this short article, we present a direct test of the assumption that women are less effective voters because of this lack of political knowledge. We make use of CSES data to study gender differences in proximity voting and correct voting. Our results do not suggest that women vote less correctly than men—a conclusion that prompts important questions about the role of different forms of political knowledge, and the seemingly gendered nature of the vote choice.
Accès libre
Are the supporters of populist parties loyal voters? Dissatisfaction and stable voting for populist parties
Voogd, Remko; Dassonneville, Ruth; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Cambridge University Press, 2018-09-17)
Scholars of electoral behaviour regularly link political dissatisfaction to two types of behaviour: voting for populist parties and unstable voting behaviour. It is therefore not surprising that the electorates of populist parties are generally assumed to be rather volatile. In this article, we argue that this is not necessarily the case – in particular in a context of increasingly strong and viable populist parties. We make use of data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems project to show that voters for populist parties are neither more nor less volatile than voters for mainstream parties. Political dissatisfaction among voters for populist parties even increases the likelihood of stable voting for populist parties. The supply of populist parties further conditions the stability of the populist vote, as voters in systems with established populist parties are more likely to vote stably for populist parties. Finally, we find that in a context of strong and stable populist parties, the effect of political satisfaction on vote switching is somewhat reduced.
Accès libre
Positive communication in a catastrophic crisis : the mixed effects of COVID-19 on the tone of Canadian governments’ media coverage
Bibeau, Alexis; Cloutier, Adrien; Fortier-Chouinard, Alexandre; Fréchet, Nadjim; Tremblay-Antoine, Camille; Dufresne, Yannick; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Intellect, 2021-07-01)
Crisis management strategies have taken a new significance amidst the COVID-19 crisis. In Canada, while the tone of media coverage of political leaders is usually stable over time, the pandemic has provoked variation that provides an opportunity to test the effect of leaders’ crisis management strategies on the tone of media coverage. Using a unique dataset of online front-page articles from 11 Canadian media outlets, an automated textual analysis, and a regression discontinuity design, this paper estimates how Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Quebec Premier François Legault’s COVID-19 early crisis management affected the media coverage devoted to them. Results show that Legault’s crisis management had a short-term positive effect on his media coverage, while Trudeau’s effect is null. These findings raise questions about the link between media, decision-makers and public opinion.
Accès libre
More ‘Europe’, less Democracy? : European integration does not erode satisfaction with democracy
Dassonneville, Ruth; Jabbour, Alexandra; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Elsevier, 2021-01-31)
The process of European integration, through institutions such as the European Union, the Eurozone, or Schengen, implies a shift in political decision-making away from the national governments and towards international institutions. This gradual shift in the balance of power, furthermore, is increasingly debated by citizens. As a result, European integration might lead to an erosion of satisfaction with democracy in European countries. By means of a longitudinal analysis of the determinants of satisfaction with democracy in European countries, we test this expectation. We find no indication that the shift in the balance of power, and the trend towards more European integration indeed have eroded satisfaction with the functioning of (national) democracy.
Accès libre
Analyse causale et méthodes quantitatives : une introduction avec R, Stata et SPSS
Arel-Bundock, Vincent; Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique (Presses de l'Université de Montréal, 2020)
L'analyse causale est une des tâches principales du scientifique. Un criminologue évalue l'effet d'une sentence sur la probabilité qu'un condamné récidive. Une économiste mesure l'effet de la discrimination raciale sur les perspectives d'emploi d'un immigrant. Un politologue étudie l'effet des médias sociaux sur la popularité des partis d'extrême droite. Une spécialiste du marketing jauge l'effet d'une campagne publicitaire sur les choix des consommateurs. Malheureusement, démontrer l'existence de telles relations est difficile, puisque de nombreux phénomènes sociaux ou physiques sont fortement associés, sans être liés par une relation de cause à effet. La distinction entre association et causalité est une des pierres d'assise de la démarche scientifique. Pourtant, cette distinction est souvent ignorée dans la vie de tous les jours, quand des arguments causaux sont défendus sur la base de simples observations descriptives. Cette différence est aussi passée sous silence dans la formation méthodologique que plusieurs étudiants reçoivent à l'université. Trop souvent, les manuels de méthodes quantitatives ignorent la question causale, ou recommandent d'interpréter les résultats d'un modèle statistique en termes causaux, alors qu'ils sont corrélationnels. Pour remédier à ce problème, ce livre offre une introduction intégrée aux méthodes quantitatives et à l'analyse causale. En plus de présenter les outils nécessaires pour exécuter des analyses statistiques, il offre un cadre théorique simple et rigoureux pour interpréter les résultats de ces analyses. Ce cadre théorique permet d'identifier les conditions qui doivent être réunies afin que l'interprétation causale de nos résultats soit justifiée.

Parcourir

Dépôts récents